Correctly understanding the overall trend of China's economic development

Correctly understanding the overall trend of China's economic development

Our country's economy has enormous development resilience and potential, and the long-term fundamentals for improvement have not changed. We need to have a correct understanding of the overall trend of China's economic development, accurately grasp the strategic opportunities faced by China's economic development, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity in the economy.

Since the beginning of this year, under the complex and severe external environment, China's national economy has continued to recover, overall rebounded, and high-quality development has been solidly promoted. Although the current economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges, China's economy has enormous development resilience and potential, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed.

The overall recovery of China's economy is improving, and high-quality development is solidly advancing

Consumption is recovering and investment structure is continuously optimizing. Since the beginning of this year, the economy and society have fully resumed normal operation, and the order of production and life has accelerated its recovery. China's consumption is recovering and improving. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with rapid growth in service consumption, continuous expansion of cultural and entertainment consumption, and continued active online retail. Fixed assets investment continued to expand, and investment in high-tech industries grew rapidly. From January to July, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) increased by 3.4% year on year, of which the investment in infrastructure and manufacturing increased by 6.8% and 5.7% respectively, and the investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.5% year on year.

Industrial upgrading is steadily advancing, and the recovery of the service industry is accelerating. Since the beginning of this year, the three industries have continued to recover and the development foundation has been consolidated. Agricultural production remained stable, and summer grain production achieved a bumper harvest. Industrial production continues to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% in the added value of industries above designated size nationwide from January to July. The results of green transformation are evident, and the development of new energy related industries is improving. Products such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic cells are growing rapidly, and their impact on upstream and downstream industries is also increasing. The service industry has experienced rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in the national service industry production index from January to July. The growth rate of contact and aggregation service industries such as accommodation and catering, transportation, etc. has rebounded significantly.

The trade structure continues to be optimized. China actively expands its high-level opening-up to the outside world, promotes the optimization of trade structure, maintains a stable overall scale of goods import and export, and maintains a high trade surplus. From January to July, the proportion of general trade imports and exports with higher added value increased to 65.4% of the total import and export volume, while private enterprises' imports and exports increased by 6.7%, accounting for 52.9% of the total import and export volume; Imports and exports to countries along the "the Belt and Road" increased by 7.4% year on year, faster than the growth of all imports and exports.

Employment and people's livelihood are effectively guaranteed. With the recovery of the economy and the continued effectiveness of employment stabilization policies, the employment situation is gradually improving. In the first half of the year, 6.78 million new urban jobs were created nationwide, an increase of 240000 compared to the same period last year; The average unemployment rate in the national urban survey is 5.3%. Residents' income has grown rapidly, with a per capita disposable income of 19672 yuan in the first half of the year. After deducting price factors, the actual growth rate was 5.8%, significantly faster than the growth rate of the entire year last year.

In the current complex and severe external environment of weak global economic recovery, high global inflation levels, and prominent spillover effects of monetary policy tightening in major economies, China's economic growth rate remains leading among major economies, demonstrating the strong resilience of China's economic development. At the same time, it should be noted that the current economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, operational difficulties for some enterprises, high risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and a complex and severe external environment. Among them, there are both cyclical and structural factors, developmental and institutional obstacles, supply and demand side factors, domestic and international risks. However, from a long-term and overall perspective, China's economy has enormous development resilience and potential, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. China's development is facing new strategic opportunities.

China's continuous development and growth bring new development opportunities

The historic leap in China's economic strength implies important opportunities for structural optimization and upgrading. Since the reform and opening up, the average annual growth rate of China's gross domestic product (GDP) has been about 9%; In the past decade, the average annual growth rate has exceeded 6%, and the economic strength has achieved a historic leap. In 2022, China's GDP accounted for approximately 18% of the global economy, firmly ranking as the world's second largest economy. On the basis of continuing to maintain the advantages of a complete industrial system, globally leading industrial chain supporting capabilities, and ranking first in the world in terms of manufacturing scale, China is promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, promoting the rapid development of strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing, promoting the healthy development of the digital economy, significantly improving scientific and technological innovation capabilities, and continuously optimizing the economic structure. Taking full advantage of China's ultra large market advantage, coordinating the expansion of domestic demand and deepening supply side structural reform, forming a higher level dynamic balance of demand pulling supply and supply creating demand, will continuously promote the optimization and upgrading of China's economic structure, enhance our internal driving force to stabilize the economic fundamentals and win the initiative in development.